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Home >> Global Analysis
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After Al Qaeda’s September 11 attacks against America’s iconic landmarks, a state of conflict prevails between the West and jihadist terrorist groups worldwide. Although Al Qaeda has been operationally weakened, it still serves as the ideological vanguard of global jihad. For the terrorists worldwide, Al Qaeda serves as a model, a standing beacon, and a revolutionary catalyst. With robust networking, Al Qaeda has been able to link diverse homegrown groups into a global movement.Al Qaeda has compensated for the loss of its training and operational bases in Afghanistan by establishing new bases and training camps. The Internet has emerged as the principal means of communication and propaganda. By linking up with local jihad groups in Yemen, Southern Philippines, Kashmir, the Pankisi Valley in Georgia and Chechnya, Al Qaeda is likely to survive. Other lawless zones of Asia, the Horn of Africa, the Middle East, the Caucasus, and the minority communities in Europe, are ideal breeding grounds for future jihadi groups. The decentralization of Al Qaeda has increased its capacity to survive and fight back.After 9/11, the threat of terrorism has increased several folds. Previously, we witnessed an attack by Al Qaeda every year. Today, Al Qaeda and its associate groups are conducting an average of one attack every three months. While Western governments devote their resources to fighting Al Qaeda, the movement’s centre of gravity has shifted to its associate groups and a ready pool of well-trained and battle-hardened cadres scattered all over the world. The outcome is the globalization of violence.Since the US-led coalition’s invasion of Iraq on 20 March 2003, the centre of gravity of international terrorism has shifted to Iraq. The conflict in Iraq has become both a magnet and a lightening rod for the jihadists and their supporters.. Like Afghanistan, which produced the last generation of mujahideen, Iraq is likely to produce the next generation of jihadists. Restoring peace and stability in Iraq is central to manage the emerging global jihadist threat.The threat of Al Qaeda and its associated groups will persist in the coming years. Furthermore, the Islamist milieu is spawning cells ideologically linked to Al Qaeda and like-minded groups. The ability and willingness of Western governments to work with Muslim governments and the Muslim community will be a critical determinant in shaping the future challenge of terrorism.
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