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Home >> Global Analysis
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.After Al Qaeda’s attack on America’s iconic landmarks on September 11, 2001, a state of conflict prevails between the West and jihadist terrorist groups worldwide. Although Al Qaeda has been weakened operationally, it still serves as the ideological vanguard of global jihad. For terrorists worldwide, Al Qaeda serves as a model, a standing beacon, and a revolutionary catalyst. With its robust networking, Al Qaeda has been able to link diverse homegrown groups into a single unified global movement.Al Qaeda has compensated for the loss and destruction of its training and operational bases in Afghanistan by establishing new bases and training camps. The Internet has emerged as the principal means of communication and propaganda for the Al Qaeda. By forming links with local jihad groups in Yemen, Southern Philippines, Kashmir, the Pankisi Valley in Georgia, and Chechnya, Al Qaeda is very likely to survive. Other lawless zones of Asia, the Horn of Africa, the Middle East, the Caucasus, and the minority communities in Europe, are all ideal breeding grounds for future jihadist groups. This decentralization of Al Qaeda has in fact, increased its capacity to survive and fight back.After 9/11, the threat of terrorism has increased several folds. Previously, we witnessed an attack by Al Qaeda every year. Today, Al Qaeda and its associate groups are conducting on average, one attack every three months. While Western governments devote their resources to fighting the Al Qaeda, the movement’s base has shifted to its associate groups as well as to a ready pool of well-trained, battle-hardened cadres scattered all over the world. The outcome of this is the globalization of violence.Since the invasion of Iraq on 20 March 2003 by a US-led coalition, the centre of gravity of international terrorism has shifted to Iraq. The conflict in Iraq has become both a magnet and a lightening rod for the jihadists and their supporters. Like Afghanistan, which produced the last generation of mujahideen, Iraq is likely to produce the next generation of jihadists. Restoring peace and stability in Iraq is central to manage the emerging global jihadist threat.The threat of Al Qaeda and its associated groups will continue to persist in the coming years. The Islamist milieu is spawning cells that are ideologically linked to Al Qaeda and like-minded groups. The ability and willingness of Western governments to work with Muslim governments and the Muslim community will be a critical determinant in tackling the future challenge of terrorism and shaping the future of global security.
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